By Annabel Brodie-Smith
On the first day of Christmas, my true love gave to me… a leadership challenge and extended uncertainty about Brexit. It certainly hasn’t been a dull December with the political stakes riding high, trade wars capturing the headlines and markets heading south. It’s been enough to drive me to mulled wine and mince pies – not that I need any encouragement on that front! But as ever it’s when times get tough that true investors come to the fore with a diversified and long-term approach.
Our esteemed investment expert, Ian Cowie sums it all up, “Political uncertainty may continue to cloud the outlook in 2019 but a globally-diversified portfolio should continue to deliver winners as well as losers, income and growth, whatever the future holds.” So true, and lucky Ian took profits from his three top-performing investment companies just before the market setbacks, but “prescience played no part”. His wife, Sue found a coastguard’s cottage which she had set her heart on. And that’s another investment lesson which is easily forgotten. Investors save prudently so they can have a comfortable future but also so that they can enjoy themselves. Good for Ian and Sue!
On prospects for markets for next year and beyond, it was fascinating to discuss this with our longest serving investment company manager, Peter Spiller of Capital Gearing, Simon Edelsten, manager of the Global investment company, Mid Wynd International and Jean Roche, manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap. It’s well worth watching the video to see their very different approaches. Peter Spiller with his capital preservation strategy is more defensively positioned than he has ever been in 36 years. Simon Edelsten is cautiously optimistic and has kept his growth stocks, but with the bull market getting long in the tooth, is running a balanced fund.
The outlook for 2019: Panel discussion with Mid Wynd International, Schroder UK Mid Cap and Capital Gearing
Jean Roche has been finding opportunities in the UK as the market is historically cheap and is expecting clarity next year on Brexit, which she hopes will benefit these investments.
For a wide range of manager views on the outlook for markets for next year and longer, do read our fund manager poll. The UK and US are the regions tipped for 2019 and Emerging Markets is expected to be the best performing region over 5 years. Trade wars are believed to be the greatest threat and the greatest cause for optimism was global growth. There are lots of interesting views expressed, including those of Andrew Bell of Witan, Simon Gergel of Merchants, Alex Wright of Fidelity Special Values and Nick Train of Finsbury Growth & Income. Of course, no-one has a crystal ball and no-one knows what the future will bring but it’s useful to gauge views.
Don’t miss AIC Chief Executive, Ian Sayers’ perspective on this important year, the 150th birthday of investment companies. He gives his thoughts on the industry’s fundraising, the attractions of alternative assets and investment companies’ income benefits and when facing an uncertain road ahead, the long-term advantages of equities. As it’s been a milestone year, we have also collated the thoughts of our chairman, analysts, wealth managers and members on what’s next for investment companies and the key trends of the future.
If anyone feels lucky, the AIC is currently running a competition to win one of five prizes of £1,000 to invest in an investment company for a child or grandchild. We have also created a new page of the website on saving for children with investment companies which includes our new saving for children video. With Christmas fast approaching this could be a potentially life-changing present for your child or grandchild.
For our first Christmas in Oxfordshire, we have lots of family coming for the usual fun and complete chaos that makes up Christmas.
I would like to wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Bring on the mulled wine and mince pies!
Annabel Brodie-Smith Communications Director, AIC
