Wisdom of ages
Long serving managers mull the market turmoil
Experience counts for a lot when facing turbulent markets. The investment trust industry is fortunate that 13% of investment trusts (31 companies) have had the same fund manager for more than 20 years and a quarter of investment trusts (59 companies) have had the same manager for more than 15 years.
Nearly half (46%) of investment trusts (109 companies) have had the same fund manager for ten years or more.
“The investment trust industry has a wealth of fund managers who can draw upon invaluable experience when navigating rocky markets and unpredictable geopolitical events.”
Annabel Brodie-Smith, Communications Director of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC), said: “The investment trust industry has a wealth of fund managers who can draw upon invaluable experience when navigating rocky markets and unpredictable geopolitical events. These managers have seen everything from oil crises and rampant inflation to armed conflicts and market volatility. This experience helps them see beyond the alarming daily events and helps them keep a calm head in uncertain times.
“In these difficult times, it’s reassuring that investment trusts have been successfully managing investors’ money through the World Wars, the Great Depression, the high inflation of the 1970s, the recession of the 1990s, the global financial crisis in 2008 and the pandemic.”
Longest serving managers of AIC member companies
Peter Spiller, Manager of Capital Gearing Trust, is the longest serving manager in the industry, having run the trust for more than 44 years. He’s followed by Matthew Oakeshott of Value and Indexed Property Income Trust with almost 40 years, James Henderson of Lowland Investment Company with 36 years, Job Curtis of City of London with 34 years and Katie Potts of Herald Investment Trust with 32 years.
See here for a list of the longest serving managers.
“With gas prices more impacted than oil prices, expectations of inflation have been raised and growth lowered more for Europe than anywhere else.”
What lessons have you learned from previous periods of conflict or crisis?
Peter Spiller, Manager of Capital Gearing Trust, said: “Every crisis is different, but the most important difference is in the response of individual countries. In the early 1970s, the UK overstimulated its economy (the Barber Boom) largely due to exceptionally poor analysis of the output gap by the Treasury. Barber was told that spare capacity was significant and therefore stimulation would not be inflationary. In fact, revisions half a decade later demonstrated that the economy was already overheated.
“The UK also suffered from the strength of the trade unions with the result that pass through of energy price increases was rapid and substantial. In Germany, the fiscal response was much more conservative. The result was that inflation peaked at 24.5% in the UK and at 7.8% in Germany. If we apply this to the current situation, the commitment to stick to the fiscal rules probably inhibits making the first mistake but sadly it is happening at a time when equilibrium unemployment is rising due to the Employment Rights Act, so the inflationary effect will be more pronounced.
“Another differentiating feature this time is that gas has a greater impact than oil and is now more important to the UK economy. With gas prices more impacted than oil prices, expectations of inflation have been raised and growth lowered more for Europe than anywhere else. Against a fragile budgetary background, we believe that the £23 billion fiscal cushion and possibly more is under threat, and fears of additional taxation at the next Budget are likely to grow and depress investment.”
Matthew Oakeshott, Manager of Value and Indexed Property Income Trust, said: “Don’t panic but buy when the bombs are falling.
“My City career started at Warburgs, now BlackRock, in 1976 after four years as special adviser to the ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer Roy Jenkins in the then Labour Government. Inflation had hit 25% and my new colleagues were still scarred by the 1974 crash after the oil price quadrupled. But UK shares looked dirt cheap to a novice like me. So I left on some limit buying orders at rock bottom prices in October and returned from a month’s honeymoon to find them all filled at the bottom and my share portfolio up 10%.
“At that time it was Denis Healey as Chancellor, now it’s Rachel Reeves walking the tightrope between overseas lenders and the Labour party base. 2026 feels like another classic buying opportunity 50 years on. Nothing really changes.”
James Henderson, Portfolio Manager of Lowland Investment Company and Law Debenture, said: “Historically, situations similar to these have tended to trigger an immediate knee-jerk reaction, which is then followed by a recovery. In the case of the 2003 Iraq War, for example, there was an immediate painful sell-off, but it was short-lived and was followed by a surprisingly quick recovery. The strength of the market before the trigger is key – if the market is reasonably priced or cheap, it will likely make a healthy recovery, having had a cushion already built in. If the market is stretched going into the crisis, the recovery is likely to be slower. The attractive valuation of the UK market going into this situation is on our side.”
Georgina Brittain, Co-Manager of JPMorgan UK Small Cap Growth & Income Trust, said: “Over the course of my career, I’ve managed through multiple periods of uncertainty, and the most important lesson has been to stay calm and keep things in perspective. When markets start moving sharply, it’s often driven by fear, and reacting in that moment can do more harm than good.
“Instead, it’s better to focus on whether the companies you’ve invested in are still strong and likely to perform well over time. Markets do adjust, and well-run, resilient businesses tend to come through difficult periods better than most. These moments can also create opportunities, allowing us to build positions in high-quality companies at attractive valuations.”
Austin Forey, Co-Manager of JPMorgan Emerging Markets Growth & Income Trust, said: “Periods of uncertainty tend to reinforce, rather than change, our core principles of investing. For example, diversification remains essential as different markets and companies respond in different ways to geopolitical stress.
“Diversification remains essential as different markets and companies respond in different ways to geopolitical stress.”
“Similarly, risk is always present. As we do not have any special insight into predicting geopolitical outcomes, our focus must remain on understanding how these risks feed through to businesses and returns rather than trying to forecast events. Finally, market movements in these periods are often driven more by changes in valuations than by underlying fundamentals. Over the past few years we have seen this clearly in markets such as China, where declines were not necessarily the result of collapsing profits, but rather a reassessment of what investors were willing to pay.”
Have you adjusted your portfolio during the conflict?
Peter Spiller, Manager of Capital Gearing Trust, said: “Our portfolio has reflected concerns about fragility and high valuation for some time, so the broad position is unchanged. We did note that gold had risen by over 70% during the past year to its peak in late January. However, in this crisis, it exhibited negative correlation with the oil price and positive correlation with the NASDAQ, suggesting that the element of speculation was more important than its supposed status as a safe haven. Whatever the outlook for prices might be, gold was clearly not a secure place to hide. We therefore sold it all.”
James Henderson, Portfolio Manager of Lowland Investment Company and Law Debenture, said: “We don’t see this situation as a time to sell, rather we approach it as an opportunity to buy where there is weakness. We have a list of companies that we keep an eye on and will add to in small amounts on weaker days. We don’t want to buy too much too quickly in situations such as these, and we also don’t want to be buying and selling all the time.”
Matthew Oakeshott, Manager of Value and Indexed Property Income Trust, said: “We are patiently reinvesting the cash from last year’s sales programme into commercial non-office property yielding 8-10% on long index-linked leases.”
What defines your approach to stock picking?
Matthew Oakeshott, Manager of Value and Indexed Property Income Trust, said: “There is only one sure way to win for long-term investors in shares and property, buy from the frightened and sell to the greedy.”
Peter Spiller, Manager of Capital Gearing Trust, said: “As ever, we believe that value underlies all investment decisions, whether of asset allocation or individual investments. The lesson from Truss was that confidence is critical to maintaining long bond prices. The lack of political willingness and public acceptance of the need to control expenditure suggests that confidence will be tested going forward, so we are short duration across the board.”
“The most enduring lesson that defines my approach to stock picking is to stay disciplined and let fundamentals, not noise, drive investment decisions.”
Georgina Brittain, Co-Manager of JPMorgan UK Small Cap Growth & Income Trust, said: “The most enduring lesson that defines my approach to stock picking is to stay disciplined and let fundamentals, not noise, drive investment decisions. Years of investing have taught me to trust my judgement. If something doesn’t feel right, whether it’s a business decision, an IPO or a detail that doesn’t quite add up, it’s important to pay attention to that instinct.”
For further comments from the longest serving investment trust managers, read our press release.
